By the time Baker Mayfield hears his name called in Thursday’s first round of the NFL Draft, it will have completed a five-year journey from the Texas high school ranks to the biggest stage of football.

But Mayfield’s maneuvering from a three-star quarterback recruit to walk-on at Texas Tech turned Heisman Trophy winner at Oklahoma is the exception rather than the rule.

Recent trends and numbers confirm what the general public has talked about for years — recruiting rankings matter when it comes to the NFL Draft.

“I think it starts on signing day, then you’ve gotta bring in NFL-type potential and then it’s up to us and the strength staff to develop that potential,” Texas coach Tom Herman said during a Big 12 teleconference.

Each year, online recruiting giant 247sports.com compiles a list of 32 five-star recruits to mimic the 32 first-round draft choices in the NFL. These are the elite of the elite projected to one day become future first-round picks.

During the past five years, 35 five-star recruits turned into first-round picks, good for a 22 percent hit rate.

If it sounds low, think again.

On average, there are at least 300 four-star recruits each year as part of 247’s composite rankings and nearly 2,000 three-star recruits. Using numbers from the 2017 NFL Draft, five-star recruits had a 31 percent chance to get drafted in the first round.

“That’s a pretty ridiculous hit rate when you look at it in the context of hundreds of thousands of high school prospects in the country,” 247Sports director of recruiting Barton Simmons told CNHI this week.

Those numbers plummeted to around 3 percent for four-star recruits and to less than half a percent for three-star recruits.

Taking it a step further during the past three drafts, the first-round success rate for five-star recruits comes in at 24 percent compared to around 4 percent for four-star recruits and less than half a percent for three-star recruits.

“The way I always put it is, give me a roster of five and four stars, and I’m going to take mine over your roster of two and three stars, and I’m going to take my chances,” Simmons said. “That ultimately is what it boils down to. The more elite talent you have, the better chance those guys are going to be a bunch of NFL players than a roster of lower-rated guys.”

Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson is the lone five-star among the Big 12 prospects rated near the top of most analysts’ draft boards. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller and ESPN’s Mel Kiper both rank Jefferson as a first-round talent, although he could be a Day 2 selection.

Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma tight end Mark Andrews, Texas cornerback Holton Hill and Iowa State wide receiver Allen Lazard were all four-star recruits who rank among the Top 100 prospects in this year’s draft, according to NFL Network’s Mike Mayock.

Recruiting doesn’t always equate to wins, but it does indicate talent. For example, Texas finished with just seven wins in 2017 yet could have more than a half dozen draft picks by the end of the weekend.

“A team can be really successful with the right makeup of lower-rated recruits. Lower-rated recruits can outperform that rating and a team can be successful, but there are still limitations on those guys being NFL Draft picks,” Simmons said. “You can have a roster of four and five stars that underachieve but you’re still going to have NFL GMs that take a chance on a lot of those guys because the ability is there.”

As a general rule of thumb, Big 12 bluebloods Oklahoma and Texas are both yearly staples in the national recruiting rankings and among the teams with the most draft picks. Everyone else is playing catch-up. This helps explain why the Big 12 numbers are lower than average

The Big 12 has produced 14 five-star prospects in the last decade with just two first-round picks and four second-round picks. Furthermore, the league has produced 41 first-round picks since 2008. They include 19 three-stars, 14 four-stars, four two-stars, two five-stars and two unranked.

Most programs tout NFL Draft success in recruiting. However, Herman indicated he’s impressed when under-the-radar recruits develop into pro players.

“If you’re able to take two- and three-star guys and develop them into mid-round draft picks because of your coaching and your strength program, I think that is a feather in your cap,” Herman said.

Super Bowl-winning offensive lineman Lane Johnson is perhaps the biggest outlier in recent memory. He was an unranked quarterback prospect who morphed from a junior college tight end prospect and later an offensive lineman at Oklahoma into the No. 4 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.

This year, Mayfield and Texas offensive lineman Connor Williams are the notable outliers from the Big 12 as three-star recruits with a chance to go in the first round. Oklahoma defensive end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Oklahoma State wide receiver James Washington were three-star recruits who could land in the second or third round.

A first-round selection by either Mayfield or Williams would mark the fourth-consecutive year the Big 12 developed a three-star recruit into a top-32 pick.

Still, Simmons pointed out for every two- or three-star athlete that makes it, there are thousands that fail. He also pointed out how the rise of 7-on-7 tournaments and the relevance of online recruiting through services like Hudl have improved accuracy in the rating system.

“The way I put it is we’re not sentencing guys to a five-star or a four-star or a two-star fate,” Simmons said. “We are projecting and then putting a label on what their talent looks like coming out of high school. They can turn that into whatever they’re capable of.”