Hey, Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders. You’ve had a great year. Shocked a lot of us. But I’ve got some news for you. You’re not going to win the Super Bowl.

Too many issues, including and especially experience. The record is nice, but the holes are bigger. We’ll see you next year.

As far as the first week of February of 2017, we’ve narrowed the field to six teams that can win the Super Bowl.

Sure, I realize about 22 teams are still alive when it comes to playoff hopes, which for most teams is a good goal. You know, make the playoffs, maybe win a game, and build toward something special.

Places like Washington, Oakland and Dallas, monster football regions, are treating Sundays like major holidays again. Tampa, Houston and Detroit are getting a sniff at playoff football, as they have before, though most of the time it ended in disappointment.

I’m no party pooper. But I am a realist. And despite the euphoria surrounding so many teams with three weeks remaining in the regular season, there are only six teams that can win the Super Bowls. That’s it. Six.

What’s it take to win a Super Bowl? There are five essential ingredients:

1. A veteran quarterback.

2. A proven coach.

3. A good, very good or great defense.

4. Other all-star players.

4. Playoff experience.

You don’t need all five “ingredients” to raise the Lombardi Trophy. In fact, rarely do we see a “five” team these days. The salary cap and the incredible dearth of “great” coaching makes it virtually impossible.

The 2001 Patriots didn’t appear to have more than one “ingredient” and thus shocked the world when they won the championship. Hindsight being 20-20, the Patriots, we realized a few years later, could have checked all of the boxes.

Which brings us to 2016 and the Super Six.

Not that any of the teams is truly super. The last time this many top teams had this many holes on their rosters was 2011. That was when the New York Giants, 9-7 during the regular season, defeated the Patriots, 13-3, by a score of 21-17, in a less-than-memorable Super Bowls game.

This year has that kind of feel. A 9-7 team with some guts — and a quarterback and a coach and some veteran talent — could win.

Here are the only six teams that can win the Super Bowl. Also, please note, this has nothing to do with a team’s record. Here I rank the teams in order of the likelihood they’ll be Super Bowl champs:

The Super Six

+7

New England Patriots (11-2)

If nothing changes, meaning the Patriots hold on to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they are probably going to the Super Bowl. The Patriots are lacking, or appear to be lacking in one area — defense. Their lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks is frustrating. But other than that, even without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots can play high-scoring games with anybody (see Pittsburgh) and win. Or they can win, say 16-13, if need be. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and Co. don’t have a great team in their wake. To beat the Patriots, defense, quarterback, coaching and pro bowl players are the paramount ingredients

Green Bay Packers (7-6)

If the playoffs started today, they’d be out. But this is the scariest team in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers downward spiral has officially ended, and the old guy is back. The pressure is on — only one Super Bowl! — and he is responding from his detractors and slump. This team is loaded with talent. It can run the ball, which helps Rodgers, and defensively it can get after the quarterback. It’s not a great defense, but it’s good enough (see Patriots) to make plays in the “situational” football category. While Lambeau Field is a great homefield advantage, this team can win in January in Dallas, Atlanta or Detroit, all playoff youngsters.

We overreact to bad losses sometimes, and I believe that happened this past week in Green Bay (a 38-10 win for the Packers). The Seahawks are a shell of the team that won the Super Bowl three years ago, and even the team that lost to the Pats two years ago, but their defense, quarterback and experience will be key with so many unproven teams in the hunt. Russell Wilson needs to up his game to an elite level, but I expect he will. Seattle’s problems on offense stem from a weak running attack, which used to be a strength and made Wilson better. Losing safety Earl Thomas, the heart and soul of the defense, could be a death knell.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

If the Steelers didn’t make the playoffs, heads would have to roll. This is the most talented offense in the NFL, even better than the Cowboys, but their problems are on defense, particularly stopping the pass. It won’t be easy for the Steelers to go into Kansas City or New England to win, but with so many weapons and a good day by its defense (and maybe some help with the weather), the Steelers have a Super Bowl championship offense. The Steelers could lose in the Wild Card game, too, possibly to Denver, but they could also run the table. Running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown are arguably the best at their position in the NFL. And Ben Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls, which matters.

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3)

For the Chiefs to win a Super Bowl, they would need a little luck. They would have to host all AFC playoff games and then hope an unproven team like Dallas, Detroit or Atlanta goes to Houston from the NFC. While their defense is very good (even better at home), their offense isn’t good enough to beat Green Bay or Seattle on a neutral site. This is a good team, sometimes very good, but the Chiefs are not a Super Bowl team most years. QB Alex Smith and coach Andy Reid, like their defense, are good, sometimes very good. This is a tough team, just not a probable champion.

N.Y. Giants (9-4)

Am I under-valuing the Giants season? Maybe. This team is sneaking up on people, primarily with the Cowboys’ domination of the NFC East. But giving the Cowboys both of their losses either tells us a lot about the Giants — that they are better than we think — or it tells us about the Cowboys being overrated. The Giants are an unimpressive team, but so was the 2011 team that beat the Patriots in Indianapolis. Maybe this could be their year, in a watered down league. The Giants have the quarterback, Eli Manning, to win a Super Bowl, and he’s got the most electric wideout in the game in Odell Beckham. But I’m not sold on their offense. And they just haven’t put a great game together, on both sides of the ball, the entire season.

Not their year … yet

Dallas Cowboys (12-2)

This is not saying the Cowboys aren’t good, because they are. My concern is experience, which matters unless you are a great team. And the Cowboys are not great yet. Last week’s loss to the Giants was important. You can’t lose to a divisional team twice and be a Super Bowl champion. If they had beaten the Giants, in New Jersey, I might be singing a different tune. It just seems like inexperience is catching up with quarterback Dak Prescott. Also, I have concerns with the Cowboys defense against topflight quarterbacks if Prescott is average. The Cowboys’ year, I believe, is next year.

Marcio Jose Sanchez

Oakland Raiders (10-3)

The Raiders and Cowboys mirror each other. Young, cocky, talented and … not ready for prime time. What this team has that the Cowboys do not is that they have been trending upward for two years. Offensively, everything is in place with a young, probable star quarterback in Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray (12 TDs) and wideouts Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. They also have one of the game’s top pass-rushers in Khalil Mack. But after that, their defense is second-rate, ranking 30th in yards allowed and 23rd in points. You can’t win in January, especially on the road, without a decent defense. Can’t … and won’t in 2016.

Despite stats, no chance

Detroit Lions (9-4), Atlanta Falcons (8-5), Tampa (8-5), Miami (8-5) and Washington (7-5-1) would have a successful season by winning a Wild Card game. But Super Bowl champs are two levels above all of these teams. The defending Super Bowl champs, Denver (8-5), is too green at QB and too hurt on defense. It’s not their year.